ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN RICE PRODUCTION IN SHANDAM LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF PLATEAU STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

The study analysed the economic effects of climate change on rice production in Shendam LGA of Plateau State, Nigeria. Multi-Stage sampling techniques was applied to select 150 rice farmers with 8 years of consistence rice production for the study. Historic climatic data (rainfall and temperature) for the period extending from 2020 to 2024 were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, also rice production data obtained from the respondents. Data were analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The result further reveals that, temperature values show moderate fluctuations, with a noticeable decline around 2021–2022, followed by a slight increase in 2023 and mixed conditions in 2024. The result shows a fluctuating rainfall pattern with a noticeable dip in 2022, followed by a steady increase from 2023 to 2024 across all three indicators (minimum, average, and maximum rainfall). The regression results show a strong explanatory power, with an R² value of 0.851, indicating that 85.1% of the variation in rice yield was explained by the independent variables included in the model. The results indicate considerable inter-annual variation in yield losses. Market prices of rice show a consistent upward trend over the study period, increasing from ₦350 in 2020 to ₦700 in 2024. The study concluded that climate variability poses significant risks to rice production in Shendam Local Government Area (LGA) of Plateau State through erratic rainfall, increased frequency of dry spells, and occasional flooding. The study recommends the need for climate-smart agricultural strategies, including improved water management, adoption of heat-tolerant rice varieties, and increased investment in farm inputs. Such measures are essential for sustaining rice production under changing climatic conditions.