EFFECT OF RICE PRODUCTION ON AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1981-2020): EVIDENCE FROM VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Abstract

The study assessed the effect of rice production on agricultural growth in Nigeria (1981-2020). Time series data obtained from archives of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for a period of 39 years were used in the study. The data collected were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics such as trend graphs, growth model and vector error correction model [VECM]. The result of the study revealed that the trend of rice production has fluctuated considerably over the years but has experienced a downward trend in the last few years while the trend of agricultural output in Nigeria has been experiencing an appreciable level of increase over the years. The growth rate and direction of rice production was 4.2% with a stagnated process while agricultural output was 4.4% with an accelerated growth process respectively during the period of study. The result of VECM indicated that in a long run, the coefficient of rice production with a coefficient of 18.942 was positive and statistically significant at P≤0.01. The result showed that the coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.46. The result also showed that the F-statistics (8.112) was positive and significant at P≤0.01 indicating the overall significance of the model. The study therefore, recommended that conscious effort must be made to increase rice production level geometrically so as to maintain pace with the rapid population growth if food security is to be ensured in Nigeria.