ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS IN RICE FARMING IN ADAMAWA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Risk factors such as frequent changes in input cost, drought, herdsmen activities and high degree of product price fluctuation could bring about severe loss in rice production and discouragement to present and prospective rice farmers. The study was conducted to assess the risk factors associated with rice farming in Adamawa State, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to: investigate risk factors that limit rice farmers from achieving maximum potential yields from rice farms and to predict the future state of rice farm output in the long run. Data were collected from 184 rice farmers using multi stage sampling techniques. Risk impact/probability chart was used to assess the potential impact of risk factors on rice output. The Markov chain model was employed to predict the future state of rice farm output.  The result revealed that frequent change in input costs is a risk that its occurrence is almost certain and has high destructive tendency. The result of Markov chain predicted that in the long run more than 51% of the rice farmers in Adamawa State would produce above 10 tonnes annually. To improve rice production, it is recommended that input prices should be subsidized and stabilized by government.