CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON MAIZE OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: AN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG BOUND APPROACH

Abstract

The study examined climate change effects on maize output in Nigeria. Data were secured from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) from 1981-2018. The effect of climate change was analyzed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound approach, Error Correction Model and Augmented Dickey– Fuller tests for stationarity test. On the effects of climatic variables on cassava output, the coefficient of multiple determination (R²) 0.6434, shows that about 64.34%, of the variations in maize output was explained by the climatic variables. F-statistics of 4.41 is significantly higher than the lower bound of 2.9 and the upper bound of 3.8 at 5% level. This indicates that there is a long run relationship between maize output and the climatic variables in the model. The ECM value of maize output is -0.213. The magnitude of the coefficient estimate of ECM suggests that 21.3% of the disequilibrium caused by previous years’ shocks converges back to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. This reveals that the speed of adjustment will adjust to the long-term equilibrium. This paper recommends the need for programmes to intimate farmers with modern adaptation strategies especially the use of irrigation facilities to supplement rainfall in the study area. Sensitization of farmers on the importance of weather forecast.