WEATHER-INDUCED SHOCKS, POVERTY PERSISTENCE AND VULNERABILITY IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODEL

Abstract

The study examined the relationship between varying weather-induced shocks and their effects on households' vulnerability to poverty in Nigeria. Data sourced from National Bureau of Statistics - General Household Survey, 2012/2013, 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 version were used in the study. Correlated Random Coefficient (CRC) model was applied to analyse the objective of the study. The CRC model showed that weather-induced shocks were observed to be significant in the third wave (2015) with respect to wave 2 (2012), while it was seen to be significant (p=0.076) in 2015 with respect to vulnerability to poverty in 2018. The interaction of weather shocks in 2015 and 2018 was significant (p=0.056), suggesting the influence and effect of weather-induced shocks on vulnerability to poverty in Nigeria. Conclusively, weather-induced shocks exacerbate vulnerability to poverty in Nigeria by disrupting livelihoods, destroying assets and displacing populations. Therefore, a robust framework to reduce the impact of weather-induced shock should be formulated through direct research endeavours and community empowerment.