WATER SECURITY AS A MEDIATOR, URBAN GROWTH AND FOOD SECURITY IN EMERGING AFRICAN ECONOMIES

Abstract

Rapid urban expansion in major cities across emerging economies contributes to water quality degradation, rising public health risks, and increasing pressure on food systems. Growing urban populations require greater quantities of water and food, while expansion of built-up areas can encroach on agricultural land and reduce the capacity of local food systems. This study examines the aggregate effect of rapid urban growth and water security on food security in four emerging African economies: Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Morocco and investigates the extent to which water security mediates the relationship between urban growth and food security. The study is anchored on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory and uses panel data covering 2000–2023. Data on prevalence of undernourishment, urban population growth, water withdrawal intensity, GDP per capita, agricultural employment, agricultural land, precipitation and surface temperature were obtained principally from the World Bank and Climate Knowledge Portal. The empirical analysis employs the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator The results show that urbanisation has a negative and statistically significant coefficient (−0.542; p < 0.01), confirming that increasing urbanisation is associated with declining food-security outcomes. Water withdrawal intensity has a positive coefficient of 0.318 and is significant at the 5% level. More importantly, the interaction term between urbanisation and water security is positive and significant (0.128; p = 0.029). This indicates that water security moderates the adverse relationship between urbanisation and food security: improved water security can reduce the severity of the negative food-security effects associated with urban growth. Urbanisation also reduces the sustainability of water-resource use. From the result a 1% increase in GDP per capita improves the sustainability of water resource use by 0.487% in Asia and by 0.532%. The results were significant at 5%. For emerging African economies, the result shows a positive influence of precipitation on sustainability of water resource, with stronger dependence in the emerging economies. Specifically, a 1% increase in precipitation raises the sustainability of water resource use by 0.264% in the emerging economies. The results were significance at 5% which implies that in the emerging economies, the sustainability of water resource use is more sensitive to rainfall. The study concluded that rapid urbanisation and intensifying water-resource pressures undermine food security, with the adverse effects being more pronounced in the selected emerging African economies. Therefore, it is recommended that emerging African economies should implement integrated land-use and water management policies. Governments in these countries should synchronize urban planning with agricultural water allocation by enforcing zoning laws to protect farmland, investing in water-efficient irrigation systems for peri-urban agriculture, and incentivizing vertical urban development.